It’s official – the 3RD wave is here
The best way to understand what is going on right now in the 3rd wave is to answer this short three question quiz:
1. Is there a greater percentage of those people tested, testing positive last week, than 2 weeks ago, 7 weeks ago (end of October) or 15 weeks ago (end of August)?
2. Have more or less people died of Covid within 28 days of a positive PCR test in this last week compared to any of the previous 7 weeks, or the average of the previous 7 weeks?
3. Are more people being admitted to ICUs with covid and are more people dying compared to the last few weeks and months?
Q1 answer – the percentage testing positive was 4.22% last week, 4.29% two weeks ago, 4.37% 7 weeks ago and 4.84% 15 weeks ago.
Q2 answer – last week’s PCR positive deaths were 454. The average of the previous 7 weeks is 619+530+611+613+671+721+756 = 4561/7 = 646. That’s an average of a 30% drop in 28 day covid deaths and a drop, from last week, of 27%.
Q3 answer – ICU admissions are lower this week than one, two or three months ago. For example, in the week of September 10th there were 507 ICU admissions. This week they were 461. Deaths in ICUs, which account for a quarter of all Covid deaths, were 167 in the week of September 10thr and 145 last week. All this is shown visually below. We are flat lining.
It’s official - the 3rd wave of bullshit of our Government and its BBC, unable to even report the % testing positive, or let us know that covid deaths have fallen by 30% (good news!!), or ICU admissions and deaths remain flat, is indisputably here. The bit in the middle, hospitalisations, isn’t going up either, based on the Government’s latest COBR report. Covid cases account for approx 5% of hospitalisations. Probably the hijacking of medical staff, unavailability of GPs, rise in mental illness and other downsides of isolation and misallocation of medical resources, has as much to do with hospital pressure as covid.
The message seems to be that we must panic. This is a major crisis and, we need to create an environment of total paranoia and emergency to GET BOOSTED NOW as our only option, other than masks and isolation. It’s more like ‘GET BAMBOOZLED NOW’.
Also, a bigger ‘meta’ picture comes from a look at ‘excess deaths’ compared to previous years and you can see this graph on Euromomo. There are none. The chart below shows every UK country with no excess deaths. This is also true for Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Denmark and Sweden. Spain, Portugal and the Netherlands, Austria and parts of Germany (not Berlin and Hesse) do have a small increase. The same can be seen in www.ourworldindata.org.
Dr Malcolm Kendrik, author of ‘Doctoring Data’ and my last podcast guest, calls this a ‘testdemic’. If people stopped testing we’d just get on with life. Reuters press release on Friday confirms one death in someone testing positive with Omicron.
For Q1&2: Source https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ - all you do is go to cases ‘cumulative’ – get the total for last 7 days; then go to tests ‘cumulative’, them divide cases/tests to get % testing positive. If you go to ‘deaths’ cumulative it is basically a flat line, unlike the step ascent of the last two waves.
For Q3 & 4: Source: https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports - I get this data every week.
Is natural immunity better?
“The microbe is nothing. The terrain (milieu interieur) is everything.” Said the legendary French scientist, Louis Pasteur ,who ‘invented’ vaccination, on his deathbed in 1895.
Almost all animals make vitamin C and make as much as 50 grams, human body weight equivalent, under viral attack. But what’s so interesting it that they keep their blood level consistent, adjusting their vitamin C production accordingly. For us humans that means supplementing several grams a day, way more than can be eaten, during viral infection. Having at least 8 grams (I prefer 20g) a day during infection improve recovery rate by 70%, lessening duration by up to 4 days in the most sick versus placebo 1, at least to the point where, in an otherwise healthy person, risk of hospitalisation is minimal.
In terms of ‘milieu interieur’ when you think of all the risk factors for covid – diabetes, heart disease, immune insufficiency, obesity and age (even though some studies show its reduced vitamin C and D status with age, not age itself that increases risk) and that children are basically immune, this supports the notion of ‘the terrain is everything’. In the UK there have only been 25 deaths in under 18 year olds representing 2 in a million 2 – in other words 99.995% with a positive covid test survive.
So then comes the obvious but totally taboo question: would it be better, if you’re healthy, have a good vitamin D level (100nmol/l) and supply of vitamin C and zinc at hand, to get covid, get over it and get natural immunity? Would this natural immunity be as good as vaccination?
An early study 3 confirmed that ‘functional SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell
responses are retained at six months following infection” Then the PITCH consortium4 including scientists from Oxford and Sheffield University showed that antibody levels in a previously infected person were as good as a single vaccine, and that someone who had both had covid and a single vaccine was as good as the antibody response of the double vaxxed. A recent Lancet review 5 of studies found that ‘the risk of repeat SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased by 80–100% among those who had had COVID-19 previously. Another laboratory-based study that analysed the test results of 9119 people with previous COVID-19 from Dec 1, 2019, to Nov 13, 2020, found that only 0·7% became reinfected.’ Another study showed ‘those who had not previously been infected had a COVID-19 incidence rate of 4·3 per 100 people, whereas those who had previously been infected had a COVID-19 incidence rate of 0 per 100 people.’
Recently I was sent an interesting article listing ‘138 of the highest-quality, complete, most robust scientific studies and evidence reports/position statements on natural immunity as compared to the COVID-19 vaccine-induced immunity’ inviting reader to draw their own conclusions.
If there’s some truth to this why not test people to confirm natural immunity before vaccination? I’m a case in point. I had covid, probably Omicron, on Monday last week, got over it in 24 hours, was positive on both lateral flow and PCR test and now have ‘natural immunity’ on my NHS app. I’m as good as naturally vaccinated, both unlikely to get it again and less likely to infect others.
1. Hemilä, H.; Carr, A.; Chalker, E., Vitamin C May Increase the Recovery Rate of Outpatient Cases of Sars-Cov-2 Infection by 70%: Reanalysis of the Covid a to Z Randomized Clinical Trial. Front Immunol 2021, 12 (1628). DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2021.674681
Vitamin C and cortisol are the real life savers
“Vitamin C and cortisol are the two most powerful naturally-occurring anti-inflammatory agents. All animals, bar a few including primates, make vitamin C from glucose. “The mechanisms of their synergistic action indicate they are literally designed by nature to interact together to optimize the antioxidant impact needed to resolve the disease-causing oxidation that always results from toxins, infections, and stress. As inflammation in a tissue is the direct result of the oxidation and depletion of vitamin C, it is of primary concern to normalize cellular vitamin C levels as promptly and completely as possible. Quite literally, when intracellular vitamin C levels are normalized in an inflamed tissue, the inflammation is completely resolved, and the cells are once again in a non-diseased, normal state.” says Dr Tom levy, author of this week’s report.
Since humans have lost the ability to make vitamin C, when under toxic attack, both cortisol (steroids) and vitamin C are needed. In 80% of hospitalized covid patients extremely low plasma levels of vitamin C are present. Circulating cortisol levels are also the lowest in the most severely ill patients.
Cortisol significantly increases the uptake of vitamin C into cells. This is very likely the primary function of cortisol in the body, as there is nothing more important for the resolution of tissue inflammation than normalizing oxidative stress as rapidly and completely as possible by normalizing vitamin C levels.
In animals all pathogens result in increased production of vitamin C and the release of cortisol and adrenalin from the adrenal glands, which results in an increased uptake of the newly-synthesized vitamin C. Cortisol and adrenalin increase glucose levels to make more vitamin C until the infection is resolved and/or the toxins are fully neutralized and excreted. That’s why animals that make vitamin C don’t get covid and why critical covid must be treated with both steroids and vitamin C.
Read Dr Tom levy’s report.
The truth about transmission post infection
If you’ve tested positive and been symptomatic, the 10 day isolation rule from the first day of infection is based on epidemiology and track and trace from the old days measuring how long people can remain infectious for and people could still be infected up to 10 days. This is the upper limit and obviously for people in hospital the guidance is 14 days to be even more cautious. In reality most people should be non-contagious approximately 3-4 days after resolution of symptoms, especially if you clear symptoms rapidly with eg high dose vitamin C . PCR tests, post infection, cannot be used because it detects dead virus as well as live and the ‘detritus’ can remain there for up to 4 months. I personally think the lateral flows should be more accurate for live virus because it detects antigen that a) requires live virus to produce and b) should be cleared quickly by your immune system. But we also know that these can be positive for longer for some people - the reasons for which remain unclear.
National guidance is to isolate for 10 days but if you had 3 days of negative lateral flows you could be pretty reassured you were negative. If you get to 10 days and you are still positive on tests I would ignore them.
In my case, I tested positive and symptomatic on Monday, free of all residual symptoms by Wednesday(day3), and tested a hint of positivity on Sunday (day 7) and negative on Monday (day 8).
Anti-viral drug results worse than placebo, says BMJ
The new anti-viral drug, molnupiravir, that Health Secretary Sajid Javid said is a “gamechanger", backing the Government’s purchase of 480,000 doses, at a cost of circa £500 a person, is no better than placebo, reports the BMJ.
At the time, in October, Merck’s press release said their antiviral drug led to a 50% risk reduction in hospitalization and death among their first 386 COVID-19 patients. When further analysis was released including the data of 710 patients, the rate of all-cause hospitalization or death was 6.8%, compared to 9.7% in the placebo group — a relative risk reduction of just 30%. Now, an analysis of all the data from all 1,433 trial participants has become available, as noted in a commentary in the BMJ. “The full data showed more hospital admissions among patients taking molnupiravir (6.2%) than among those taking a placebo (4.7%).” Molnupiravir works by triggering mutations that ultimately kill the virus; a risk of cancer and birth defects is possible, and the drug shouldn’t be taken by pregnant or breastfeeding women or children.
Since vitamin C, at a fraction of the price, reduces duration and severity of infection at a dose of 8g a day with a 70% improved recovery rate - with no safety issues whatsoever - and reduces days in hospital and mortality, when given to critically ill covid hospitalised patients, it can reasonably be expected to reduce hospitalisation better than this remarkably toxic and expensive drug. This is like Tamiflu all over again. Our taxes are being wasted for someone else’s profit.
Wishing you a Happy Christmas and Healthy New Year! Patrick & The Team at www.patrickholford.com.
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